Jones Averino, live in Indonesia since birth and a citizen of that country
Could they invade? Yes, sure. Could they defeat Indonesia? Well, not really.
You see, while China has a strong armed forces and Indonesia has a substantial armed forces but it’s not as strong or big as China and Indonesia has no allies to call in the times of war, China’s power projection (to move and support it’s forces to another country) is still growing today and as such it cannot realistically support the large number of troops needed to defeat and occupy Indonesia for a long period of time which has a large number of population (around 250 million) and as such requires a monumental effort which may be possible but will be very hard to do. Moving your troops to other country is one thing but resupply it is another.
The real problem however is economy, to invade Indonesia means to put the Strait of Malacca, the territories that are only kilometres away from Singapore and a part of South China Sea as a combat zone and put more than 90000 merchant ships in the crosshairs and disrupt the trades through the ships. That means it will disrupt trillions dollars worth of trades that can possibly crush the economy of Indonesia, China and the rest of the world and everybody loses and the rest of the world might support Indonesia to put the end of the war as quickly as possible and China might be forced to end the war before they can conquer Indonesia. Plus, the US that has quite large presence at East Asia especially its Navy might not sit idly watching China invade a country that sit right on trillions of dollars of trade and expanding its territory.
So no, China cannot invade and defeat Indonesia with current standing and geopolitics.
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